While the future of the Syrian State is uncertain, the intentions of Israel are transparent and rather predictable.
Almost immediately upon the fall of Damascus to Syria’s opposition forces, the Israeli military decided to invade and change what had been the status quo since 1974. Israel publicly declared its intention to create its long-desired buffer zone in the entirety of the Golan Heights, yet the picture has become much more complex.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria has now created a situation of relative uncertainty inside the country. Although the victory of the 13-year-long bloody war is firmly that of what was once the Syrian Opposition, the new reality on the ground will not be established for some time and involves a myriad of different groups, many with different international financial backers, that makes almost all analyses that depict a hypothetical future tantamount to useless for now.
How Israel fits into this picture is somewhat clearer, however, especially since it decided to immediately launch a war and illegal land grab inside the country, while the new Syrian government had barely even issued victory statements yet.
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Israel’s role in Syria has always been with the purpose of destabilization in mind. In 2013, it began providing material and financial support to Syrian opposition groups, even paying individual fighters salaries of $75 per month. Between 2013 and 2017, roughly 3,000 Syrian rebel fighters were treated in Israeli field hospitals that had been established in the illegally occupied Golan Heights.
At one point during the war, the Israelis were actively backing at least a dozen different Syrian opposition groups. One of the groups it chose to offer its support to was Jubhat Al-Nusra, otherwise known as the Syria branch of Al-Qaeda, which later renamed itself Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and is led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
The Israel support offered to these groups was granted with the goal of aiding the collapse of the Syrian State, which would allow for them to invade southern Syria and establish their desired buffer zone that would extend past the Golan Heights, instead encompassing an area including part of Suwayda and the southern countryside of Damascus.
This would mean that the Israelis would manage to expand their borders past the de-militarized zone and seize the entirety of the Syrian Golan Heights.
The Israelis did not consider the ideology of a group in order to aid it along the Golan Heights but instead focused on how that armed movement could help them with their own strategic goals.
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The support for Al-Nusra, at a time when it was actively working with ISIS to capture the Yarmouk refugee camp in Damascus, for example, did not bother Tel Aviv.
Now that the old Syrian State has collapsed and regime change is in motion, Israel is taking the time to commit what it has itself branded the largest air campaign in Israeli history, with the stated goal of eliminating the advanced capabilities of Syria.
In order to do this, Israeli fighter jets launched hundreds of airstrikes that targeted strategic positions across the country, repeatedly striking in and around Damascus City.
In conjunction with its air campaign, which struck Syrian missile depots, research centers, fighter jets, helicopters, naval vessels, and air defense systems, thousands of Israeli ground forces flooded across the deconfliction zone for the first time since the October war of 1973.
What is important to understand about Israel’s decision-making process here is that they are seeking a propaganda victory, as well as to maneuver in a manner conducive to their future goals.
While some have made the assumption that the new Syrian salvation government would take a neutral or potentially friendly position on the topic of Israel, not even the policymakers in Tel Aviv are seeking to take such a chance.
As most Syrians are staunchly pro-Palestinian, as are most of the fighters in the ranks of the various rebel factions, there would appear to be a risk that eventually a unity government could end up turning the weapons that were formerly under the control of Bashar al-Assad, onto Israel. Which explains why Israel decided to use the opportunity to destroy the more advanced capabilities of Syria at a time when the nation was on its knees militarily speaking and all but incapable of fighting back.
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The ground operation that the Israelis have committed themselves also contains multiple motivating factors. It is clear that part of it has to do with an image of victory for the Israelis themselves, this being the symbolic photos they can take from various locations inside Syrian territory.
Although they did not even encounter a single bullet that resisted them and the entire world, including most Arabic media outlets, decided not to make it a priority to broadcast, the Israelis still appear get repeatedly seek a special kind of bragging rights.
In addition to this, Tel Aviv is setting itself up for a possible invasion of Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley area. While the Israeli military had proven incapable of traveling much further than a few kilometers, in many instances, when invading southern Lebanon, an assault launched through the Beak Valley from inside Syria could see much greater successes in terms of territorial progression in Lebanon.
A top priority of the Israeli regime is to prevent weapons from reaching Lebanese Hezbollah, which they could feel requires at least a temporary physical presence of Israel’s forces along the Lebanon-Syria border area.
The other main issue here is to illegally occupy more Syrian land and expand Israel’s current borders, which has desired to do since 1993 and has failed to deliver. It receives the full support of the Western powers in order to achieve this key goal.
Aside from these more obvious issues, it signals that Israel is attempting to directly interfere in the affairs of the new Syrian government. As Israel launches a one-way war, facing no resistance from the rebel forces, the new Syrian State is being embarrassed and robbed of legitimacy, which is why some media outlets are choosing to ignore the humiliation being dealt by Israel.
Syria’s new government must take on the task of keeping dozens of different Syrian groups together and also providing for the people under its control. On top of Syria’s general public, who were already suffering economically prior to the fall of Bashar al-Assad, they now must deal with millions of refugees who may soon move back to their homes.
Logistically, this is already an enormous task and would prove a stunning feat if they were capable of rebuilding the nation while uniting groups that range from the secular to the most fringe extremist Islamic parties.
Now, however, the Israelis are instantly jumping in to try and prevent a unified Syria that could once emerge strong and independent. The challenge that is being posed is that the new HTS-led government in Syria will either have to endure complete humiliation at the hands of the Israelis, who once allied with each other in the Golan Heights, or face being hit with new sanctions in the event that rebel militia forces choose to resist.
While the future of the Syrian State is uncertain, the intentions of Israel are transparent and rather predictable.
Only time will tell from here whether the Palestinian resistance will be granted a home inside Syria or whether Israel will impose itself by force and prevent a Syria that is free from foreign domination and occupation.
(The Palestine Chronicle)
– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine. He contributed this article to The Palestine Chronicle.
