Ahmed Abdul Rahman, a political and military affairs writer, analyzes the recent increase in rocket launches from Gaza, attributing it to both military necessity and the resistance’s ability to adapt under severe siege and attack. The analysis originally appeared in Al Mayadeen.
The rocket production industry in the Gaza Strip goes through four essential stages. These stages, as everyone knows—including Israeli intelligence agencies—are difficult and complex, requiring expertise and skill. Two of these stages, in particular, involve immense bravery, especially given the ongoing Israeli aggression on Gaza, which has lasted for nearly 15 months.
The first stage begins with obtaining the raw materials necessary for rocket production. These include explosive materials, whether traditional or locally manufactured, which are placed in the warhead, as well as the metal cylinders that make up the rocket’s body, or those used for making the tail that helps maintain balance during flight. Some electrical components are also needed to generate the energy required to ignite the propellant that drives the rocket upwards.
The second stage is manufacturing, which requires specialized experts familiar with this dangerous and sensitive work. Any mistake during this process can lead to catastrophic results. Palestinian resistance history is full of hundreds of martyrs who lost their lives while working in rocket manufacturing workshops or making improvised explosive devices. This process also involves using tools like lathes, cutting tools, and welding equipment to complete the job.
The third stage takes place outside the workshops and closed areas; it involves “concealing” the rockets, meaning placing them in metal or plastic containers buried underground. These rockets are then directed toward target areas at specific times. This stage requires physical strength from those involved, particularly when digging in the earth due to the lack of proper equipment caused by the siege. In addition, it is carried out carefully to avoid detection by Israeli surveillance aircraft, which fly constantly over Gaza, whether during battles or ceasefire periods. The digging is usually done manually with basic tools.
The final stage of rocket launching from Gaza is the actual launch, which is the most dramatic and dangerous phase. This typically occurs during combat between the resistance and the Israeli military, when Israeli reconnaissance aircraft are intensively flying overhead, equipped with advanced technological capabilities that allow them to detect any movement, even in densely built areas or forests. This represents a significant threat to the lives of those launching the rockets, although, in recent years, they have avoided much of this danger by using underground tunnels and passageways to launch their rockets and shells.
Since the beginning of the war against Gaza, as in all previous confrontations, the Israeli enemy has sought to destroy the Palestinian rocket systems using all the resources at its disposal. These methods included focused assassinations of leaders and personnel involved in the production, storage, and launch of these rockets. Israel also attempted to prevent the supply of raw materials used in their manufacturing, even if these materials had dual uses. Additionally, they targeted the manufacturing workshops based on intelligence, or occasionally discovered them during military incursions into Gaza’s cities and refugee camps.
Despite all the efforts of the occupation over the past months and the complete siege imposed on the entire Gaza Strip, including its sea and land borders, the resistance has managed to launch a significant number of rockets toward Israeli cities. Many of these rockets have reached major cities like Ashkelon, Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem, and Beersheba. At times, the rockets have targeted Israeli air force bases across occupied Palestine, as well as gas fields, particularly those near Gaza’s shores, such as the “Marine 2” field.
As the aggression on Gaza continued, the number of rockets launched at Israeli towns and cities decreased significantly. This was due to the prolonged war, which depleted the resistance’s rocket stockpiles, along with logistical and operational difficulties created by the expansion of the Israeli ground offensive, which notably hindered the movement of fighters and limited their ability to perform tasks effectively.
However, in the past four months, a surprising development occurred. The rate of rocket launches has begun to rise again, albeit in a limited fashion. The time intervals between each launch now range from two to three weeks. Most of these launches have come from the Khan Younis area in the southern Gaza Strip, the central region, as well as the northern areas of Gaza City. The Israeli enemy has tried to stop these launches by issuing evacuation orders to civilian residents living near launch sites, hoping that this would pressure the resistance to stop the attacks or at least stir the civilian population to turn against the resistance by making them pay the price for the fighters’ actions.
However, the events of the past two weeks, particularly during the Israeli military operation in northern Gaza, which has now lasted over three months, have come as a stunning surprise to the Israeli military and intelligence services. For 12 consecutive days, rocket fire has continued from northern Gaza, specifically from areas very close to Israeli forces. Some rockets have even reached the outskirts of Jerusalem, about 70 kilometers away from Gaza’s borders, while others have targeted Ashkelon, Ashdod, and numerous settlements along the Gaza envelope.
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This development, considered by Israeli media as alarming and disturbing, led some settlers in the Gaza envelope to reconsider their return to the area. It has raised questions about the reasons behind this surge in rocket launches at this particular moment and placed serious doubts on the Israeli army’s ability to resolve the situation in Gaza after such an extended period of fighting, especially following the unprecedented losses of Israeli soldiers and officers in northern Gaza in recent months.
From our perspective, we believe there are several key factors behind this change, the most important of which are:
First: The Escalation of the Aggression
It became clear during the months of the war that the Palestinian resistance has adapted its operations according to the evolving situation. The resistance has planned its actions based on a prior assessment, overseen by its various operations rooms.
The unprecedented brutality of the Israeli army, especially in northern Gaza, where it has waged a campaign of genocide against both people and property and displaced tens of thousands of residents, has pushed the resistance to respond in ways that the enemy understands. The message is clear: there is no security for the settlers, whether in the Gaza envelope or in other cities, as long as the people of Gaza continue to be killed, displaced, and subjected to genocide. An increase in the scale of aggression will inevitably lead to an increase in resistance operations.
Second: The Resistance’s Recovery
It is indisputable that the Palestinian resistance factions have suffered heavy losses in terms of personnel and resources. The scale and prolonged duration of the aggression compared to previous conflicts have led the resistance to lose many of its capabilities, whether from their use in combat operations or due to damage caused by enemy attacks. Consequently, there was a period of vulnerability for the resistance, particularly regarding its rocket capabilities, leading some to believe it would be unable to recover.
Surprisingly, the opposite has occurred. As seen in several media releases, the resistance has resumed its manufacturing workshops and managed, under extremely difficult and complex conditions, to get production back on track. Although not at the same scale as before, this achievement is remarkable given the immense pressure, siege, and ongoing conflict.
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Third: Counteracting Israeli Pressure Tactics
It has become clear to everyone that the Israeli enemy escalates its military operations and deadly attacks on innocent civilians whenever there are negotiations aimed at halting the aggression or reaching a comprehensive deal. This pressure is aimed at forcing the resistance into making concessions, particularly on contentious issues that have caused previous negotiations to fail, such as the full withdrawal from Gaza, the return of displaced people, and the release of prisoners from both sides.
In every previous instance, the occupation has imposed new conditions to extort the resistance, while simultaneously ramping up military pressure in hopes of achieving some gain that might compensate for its failure over the past 15 months.
Thus, the resistance appears to be increasing its operations, whether by heroically confronting Israeli attacks, as seen in Jabaliya, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun or by expanding the targeting of Israeli cities and settlements with rockets and shells. In doing so, it seeks to foil the enemy’s pressure through counter-pressure, even if not on the same scale, due to differences in capabilities.
In any case, whether the reasons outlined here are the main causes for the increase in Palestinian rocket attacks on Israeli cities and settlements, it is clear that the failure of the Israeli army will persist.
Even if this war lasts 100 years, this resilient people, who have performed miracles through their patience and steadfastness, will continue to fight at any cost, knowing full well that those who have occupied their land for decades understand only the language of strength. They also know that this blessed land cannot accommodate two nations, and that all the blood and sacrifices they make will eventually lead to victory, honor, and empowerment.
(Al Mayadeen – Translated and Prepared by the Palestine Chronicle)
