A new study published in The Lancet estimates Gaza’s death toll at 64,260, 41% higher than official figures, highlighting the devastating impact of the ongoing genocide.
A recent study published in The Lancet estimates the death toll in Gaza to be 64,260, a figure 41% higher than the official reports from Gaza’s Health Ministry. The study, conducted by a UK-based team of researchers, analyzed data from multiple sources, including Gaza’s Health Ministry, online surveys, and social media obituaries, and concluded that the toll is significantly underreported by the official figures.
As of June 30, 2024, Gaza’s Health Ministry reported 37,877 deaths resulting from the ongoing genocide. However, the new study estimates that between 55,298 and 78,525 individuals died from traumatic injuries by that date. The study’s best estimate of 64,260 deaths shows that the official death toll was underreported by 41%. This figure represents 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, or approximately one in every 35 residents.
The research found that 59% of the victims were women, children, and the elderly. Importantly, the figures only account for deaths from traumatic injuries and do not include fatalities from the lack of healthcare, food, or sanitation. The study also does not consider the thousands of missing persons, many of whom are believed to be buried under rubble.
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Methodology
The researchers used a statistical technique called “capture-recapture,” which has been employed in past studies of war zones worldwide. The method involves cross-referencing multiple data sources to estimate the total death toll. The data for this analysis came from three lists: Gaza’s Health Ministry list of identified bodies, an online survey initiated by the Health Ministry where Palestinians reported the deaths of their relatives, and obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp.
“We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and hospitals,” said lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on these overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed,” she added.
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Expert Opinions
Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group who was not involved in the research, confirmed the validity of the capture-recapture method. “The technique has been used for centuries, and I believe the researchers have reached a good estimate for Gaza,” Ball stated.
Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain’s Open University, also praised the researchers for their approach. “There is inevitably a lot of uncertainty when making estimates from incomplete data,” he said. “But it’s admirable that the researchers used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates. Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling,” he concluded.
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Limitations and Criticisms
Despite its thorough methodology, the study acknowledges some limitations. The data does not account for the 10,000 Gazans believed to be buried under rubble, and the death toll might still be underestimated due to indirect causes of death such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation, or the spread of disease. These factors have become increasingly problematic in Gaza since October 2023.
In a non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers suggested that the Gaza genocide could ultimately result in 186,000 deaths when accounting for indirect causes. However, the new study disputes this projection, stating that it might be “inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease” in Gaza compared to other genocide zones like Burundi and East Timor.
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The Bigger Picture
Jamaluddine stressed that while there may be criticism of the study from various sides, it is crucial to acknowledge the overwhelming mortality caused by the genocide. “We already know that there is a lot of high mortality,” she emphasized, speaking out against the “obsession” of debating the death toll figures.
Throughout the genocide, Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of Gaza’s Health Ministry’s figures. However, the United Nations has consistently upheld the reliability of the ministry’s data.
While uncertainties remain and the death toll may continue to rise as more information becomes available, this new study provides a clearer picture of the devastating impact of the genocide on Gaza’s population.
(PC, Agencies)
