This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: Matt Duss, you’re the executive vice president at the Center for International Policy and also former foreign policy adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders. We also want to ask you about the ongoing negotiations to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. On Tuesday, President Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow for nearly five hours, but a deal to end the war in Ukraine was not reached. Russian officials described the talks as “constructive” but said no compromise was reached on certain issues.
AMY GOODMAN: Witkoff and Kushner are set to meet today with Ukraine’s lead negotiator in Florida for further talks. Meanwhile, Putin is now in India meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This all comes as Germany’s foreign minister has criticized Russia, saying he had seen no serious willingness on the Russian side to enter into negotiations. And NATO says, of course, that they’re going to continue to supply U.S. weapons — pay for and then supply U.S. weapons to Ukraine. Where does all this stand, Matt?
MATT DUSS: I think, well, I mean, first of all, I would say efforts to end this war through diplomacy are good, and I commend them. I think most Americans would like to see this war end. Certainly the Ukrainians want this war to end. The Europeans want this war to end. But once again, I think we have arrived at the same place, which is that Vladimir Putin does not want this war to end, certainly not on terms that would be remotely acceptable to Ukraine, by which I mean a resolution to this war that sustains and preserves Ukraine’s independence, its democracy and its ability to defend itself.
I think a lot of people were kind of surprised by the extent to which the 28-point plan that was leaked a few weeks ago really, essentially, you know, echoed Russia’s preferences. Some people said it was written in Russia. I don’t know if that’s true, but it clearly did reflect a lot of Vladimir Putin’s own preferences for how the war should end. As an opening bid, I don’t think we should make too much of it. It is good that these talks are going on. But again, I think we’ve arrived at the same place, which is that the person who has a very, very important vote here, Vladimir Putin, is not supporting an end to the war.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: Well, it’s extraordinary, Matt, because I did read over those 28 points, and it does seem, as many have commented, that most of Russia’s demands have been met. So, what explains their resistance to this proposal? And what parts did they — do we know what they took umbrage with, that they don’t want to agree to?
MATT DUSS: Well, I think there are issues. You know, there was kind of a negotiation going on within the Trump administration. You know, Witkoff and Kushner put out this plan or were, you know, involved in constructing it initially. Secretary of State Rubio then made changes internally. There’s a kind of fight between the Rubio and the Vance wing in the Trump administration here, with the Vance wing being much more aggressively trying to end this war.
I think that some of the key concerns were the kind of agreement that Russia — excuse me, that Ukraine would not join NATO as a promise. Some people see that as unacceptable. Personally, my own view is everyone, I think, understands that Ukraine will not be joining NATO. I understand that you don’t want to take that off the table at the outset of negotiations, but I don’t think that should be — you know, that shouldn’t be allowed to be a roadblock to an agreement.
At the same time, I also don’t think that is the only thing that concerns Russia. As I said, Vladimir Putin’s goals here, in my view, have not changed. I’ve seen no evidence that his initial goal of curtailing Ukraine’s independence and bringing it back under, essentially, Russian authority as a part of a broader Russian imperium, that remains his ultimate goal. And any agreement short of that, it seems to me, he’s not going to go for.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: And, in fact, on NATO, which, of course, many speculated that this was indeed the reason that Russia invaded Ukraine, it’s not only that the plan calls for an end to NATO expansion, but it says specifically, singling out Ukraine, that Ukraine should inscribe in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and that NATO would include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted. If you could —
MATT DUSS: Yeah.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: — comment on that?
MATT DUSS: Yeah, I think that that really just goes way, way too far. I think there are — there are commitments that could be made, assurances that could be made with regard to Ukraine and NATO. But again, I do not think that NATO and Ukraine’s possibility or impossibility of joining NATO is really the issue here. It is one among a whole set of issues that indicate Ukraine’s ultimate orientation and its ultimate independence. Ukraine’s independence is the real issue here, as far as I can tell.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: And the plan also says that all parties to the conflict — I mean, Ukraine and Russia — will receive full amnesty once the proposal goes into effect, the ceasefire, if indeed that’s what it is, the peace plan, which seems, some have said, in part, geared towards having the ICC warrant against Putin lifted and also —
MATT DUSS: Yeah.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: — absolving Russia of alleged war crimes, including what happened in Bucha. If you could comment on that?
MATT DUSS: Yeah. I mean, that is — that’s really objectionable. But, you know, again, as hard as it is to say, if that’s something that gets us to an end to the war, a durable end to the war, that is something that we should consider. This is certainly not justice for the many, many victims of Russia’s violence, which has been grotesque.
Unfortunately, the United States itself is not in a great position here, given the cover that we continue to give to partners like Israel for their war crimes in Gaza, clearly war crimes. So, I think the United States and its allies in Europe would be in a much better position to push back against this if we were applying these standards equally, which we are not.
AMY GOODMAN: And, Matt Duss, the significance of the corruption scandal that’s been engulfing the Zelensky administration, with his number two man, Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff to Zelensky, being forced out? You usually always see him at his side.
MATT DUSS: Yeah, no, I think this has been a corruption scandal that has been brewing for a while, and the firing of Zelensky’s number two man, his chief of staff, is obviously very significant. Ukraine continues to struggle with corruption problems that go back a long time. But I also think it’s worth noting, the fact that the number two leader in Ukraine was removed from power because of a corruption investigation is itself a very, very positive step.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: And finally, Matt, if you could comment on the sheer scale of the destruction that this war has wrought, not only in terms of, you know, entire areas in Ukraine being flattened, but also that Russia has suffered over 600,000 casualties? That is to say, people killed and wounded. This is roughly 10 times the number of Soviet casualties suffered over a decade in their invasion and occupation of Afghanistan. And open-source data has revealed that 111,000 Russian military personnel have been killed. Meanwhile, also open-source data shows that there have been about 400,000 Ukrainian casualties. And Zelensky himself has said that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. So, if you could talk about this? I mean, this is a really extraordinary — these are extraordinary numbers.
MATT DUSS: Yeah, it is extraordinary, and it’s just a staggering waste. I mean, for what? For what did these people die? For what reason were they sent into this horrible meat grinder? For what was this destruction done? To take some land in eastern Ukraine?
I think this is — again, as horrible as this is and as horrible it is to consider the fact that there might have to be some form of amnesty, I do also think it’s worth noting that Vladimir Putin, after nearly four years of war, has not achieved anything close to his ultimate goal. And I do think this is worth considering as we talk about the possibility of a ceasefire. Ukraine has performed far — has done greater things than I think anyone expected. So, given the loss of life, given the destruction, I know it’s hard for many Ukrainians to consider having to make some concessions to end the war, but I do think there is a victory narrative here for Ukraine to take.
One other thing I do want to mention in terms of the costs of this war is the tens of thousands of Ukrainian children that were taken into Russia and distributed among Russian families. That is absolutely something we should not forget. That is something on which there should be no compromise. These children need to be returned to their families.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: And what does the — what does the plan say about that, the proposal that the U.S. has put forth?
MATT DUSS: I’m unclear what it says on that. This is something that’s clearly going to be contested as we get into the — if we get into anything close to final status talks, which it doesn’t seem like we’re close to right now.
AMY GOODMAN: Matt Duss, we want to thank you so much for being with us, executive vice president at the Center for International Policy and former foreign policy adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders.
This is Democracy Now!, democracynow.org. When we come back, President Trump says he’s going to limit immigration from, quote, “the Third World.” We’ll be back to talk about this and what’s happening here in New York City, ICE raids that have been thwarted by activists blocking ICE cars. Stay with us.
[break]
AMY GOODMAN: Malian musician Khaira Arby, performing in our Democracy Now! studio.
