GAZA, (PIC)
Despite the repeated talk about a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, field facts and political statements indicate that Israel’s aggression has not actually stopped, but has rather entered a stage based on gradual escalation, with the continuation of daily raids and killings, amidst fears of returning to a broader pattern of crimes during the coming period.
The writer and political analyst Alaa Al-Rimawi believes that what is happening in the Strip cannot be considered a “post-war” stage, but is rather a “continuation of the war with different tools.”
He explained to the PIC correspondent that the occupation “is working to weaken the security environment in Gaza to the maximum extent, through intermittent but intensive military operations, with the aim of imposing a state of permanent attrition.”
Continuous daily pressure
He added that “this approach keeps the Strip under continuous daily pressure, while keeping the option of expanding operations open at any moment, without the need to declare a comprehensive war,” noting that “Israel seeks to establish a field reality showing that it is in a state of continuous war, even without an official declaration.”
He pointed out that this path gives the Israeli decision-maker wider space for political and military maneuvering, in light of internal pressures and regional challenges, stressing that “the current escalation is not separate from broader calculations related to the form of managing the conflict in the next stage.”
According to data from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, the number of martyrs since the start of the ceasefire on 10 October last has risen to 836 martyrs, in addition to 2,365 injuries, along with the recording of 768 recovery cases.
Political movement without a breakthrough
In parallel, field developments coincide with continuous political movement without achieving an actual breakthrough, as media reports reported that the meetings held recently between Israeli and international officials, including the meeting of the head of the Israeli occupation government Benjamin Netanyahu with the international official Nickolay Mladenov, focused on managing the existing situation in Gaza more than reaching a comprehensive political solution.
According to what was reported by media outlets, these meetings dealt with assessing the current stage since the announcement of the ceasefire, amidst talk about the need to “adjust work mechanisms”, without referring to tangible progress in the core files.
Estimates also indicate that the talks related to the Gaza Strip have reached a dead end, in light of Israel’s refusal to implement the obligations incumbent upon it in the first stage.
The Hamas Movement confirmed in statements reported by media outlets that “any progress is linked to the commitment to implementing the first stage of the agreement,” confirming Israel’s lack of commitment to its terms, especially regarding the field reality and the continuation of the aggression.
Statements paving the way for expanding operations
In this context, Israeli statements indicating the possibility of expanding the military aggression are increasing, as Hebrew media quoted officials in the General Staff as saying that “a wider round in Gaza has become almost inevitable,” in light of the faltering of the current path.
Reports also quoted military officials as saying that “the current stage may not last long in this form,” in a sign of the possibility of moving to a pattern of more intensive and broader operations during the coming period.
These statements come in parallel with estimates within the Israeli security services stating that “military options are still on the table,” and that the return to broad escalation remains existing in the event of continued political stalemate.
Analysts believe that this discourse is not separate from the attempt to prepare the Israeli public opinion for any potential escalation, especially in light of the absence of progress in the political path, and the continuation of pressure on the government.
The continued targeting of civilian and service infrastructure, including police agencies, is also seen as part of a policy aimed at keeping the Strip in a state of pressure and chaos, which facilitates justifying any subsequent escalation.
In light of these data, it seems that the scene in Gaza is heading towards two parallel paths: the first consists of the continuation of the current state of attrition, through intermittent operations and daily pressure, and the second consists of the transition to a broader escalation that may extend for weeks, in an attempt to impose a new reality on the ground.
